Stock market leadership, previously concentrated in technology stocks, broadened out earlier in the year, but in recent weeks, the trend reversed course. “The same, mostly technology-oriented stocks that dominated the market’s 2023 rally are once again driving the most recent market surge,” says Haworth. “There’s still a lot of room for the market's strength to broaden out to more sectors.”
U.S. economy boosts stocks
While interest rate trends influence the stock market, performance is also closely tied to the strength of the U.S. economy. “As the Fed raises interest rates, we typically expect slower economic growth,” says Eric Freedman, chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Surprisingly, however, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew more quickly in 2023 (2.5%) than it did in 2022 (1.9%). Growth slowed modestly to 1.3% in 2024’s first quarter,4 but appears on track to expand throughout 2024, according to Freedman. “Consumer spending and business capital expenditures remain strong, and that’s a reason for bullishness about stocks in the near term,” he says. Freedman notes that businesses appear committed to getting “bigger, stronger and faster through technology spending.” That’s provided a solid boost to technology-oriented stocks.
Yet, interest rates are still a consideration for equity investors. Stock prices tended to track with bond yield trends over the course of 2023. When interest rates rose, stock prices retreated, and when rates fell, stocks reacted favorably. Haworth still anticipates a continuation of the kind of market volatility that’s existed since mid-2023. “The market is waiting for Fed rate cuts,” says Haworth, “but with the sense that the Fed won’t need to push rates higher, markets seem to be less fixated on the timing of those cuts.”
The path forward
After its June 11-12, 2024, meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that rate cuts are still on the Fed’s radar, but the timing of such cuts remains a question.5 “The Fed is very focused on achieving its long-term inflation target of 2% (still below the current rate of 3.5%),” says Freedman.
While market interest rates may fluctuate in the near term, with some ramifications for stocks, it isn’t the only factor equity investors should consider. “Interest rates are likely to begin falling as inflation softens,” says Haworth. “A key factor is whether inflation declines because the economy stalls, or if it is a matter of prices softening within the context of a still-growing economy.” Haworth says the latter scenario is more beneficial for equities.
Putting your portfolio into perspective
As you assess your own circumstances, be prepared for potential stock price fluctuations in the near term. Nevertheless, assuming that current inflation trends endure and the economy can hold its ground, stocks should continue to represent a key component of any diversified portfolio for long-term investors. “In part, this is due to the fact that equity returns can help investors keep pace with inflation,” says Haworth.
Talk with your wealth professional about your comfort level with your portfolio’s current mix of investments and discuss whether any changes are appropriate in response to an evolving capital market environment consistent with your goals, risk appetite and time horizon.
Note: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely traded stocks that are considered to represent the performance of the U.S. stock market in general. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in the index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index and is representative of the U.S. small capitalization securities market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in the index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.