In the meantime, there are other signs that the economy remains on a steady course. It added 272,000 jobs in May, and there remain approximately 1.2 available workers from every open job in the United States.3 As a result, says Eric Freedman, chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Wealth Management, “The environment indicates the Fed will be inclined to keep rates up higher for longer, and that rate cuts won’t happen as quickly as we’d like.”
“Despite its progress since early 2022, current inflation is still above the Fed’s target rate,” says Freedman. “But we think the Fed will have to start cutting rates before inflation drops to its 2% target.”
Markets not surprised by Fed news
Investors were clearly prepared for the Fed’s June decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The S&P 500 gained close to 1% when trading ended on the same day as the Fed’s announcement, reflecting that even if there’s disappointment in the ongoing delay in rate cuts, investors are taking the Fed’s latest signals in stride.4 Likewise, in the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined,5 indicating there are few investor concerns about the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for longer.