One measure economists watch to forecast potential changes in labor market trends is the weekly new jobless claims report. In the most recent report, issued May 2, 2024, initial jobless claims stood at 208,000. It has lingered in the low 200,000 level for most of 2024.6 “It shows companies are generally hanging onto their employees,” says Haworth. “At the same time, recent reports show people aren’t leaving jobs at the rate they once were. That signals a slightly softer labor market.”
The labor force participation rate, representing the percentage of the population currently in the workforce, held at 62.7% in April, matching March’s number.2 Labor force participation is considered a key barometer of the broader economy’s health. The labor force participation rate was higher, at 62.8%, between August and November 2023.4 “Improving labor participation is one way to address tightness in the labor market that’s propping up wage gains,” says Matt Schoeppner, a senior economist at U.S. Bank.
Watching for the Fed’s response
Signs of slower economic growth have not translated into reduced inflation. The most recent reading of the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 3.5% for the 12 months ending in March 2024. Inflation has lingered between 3% and 3.7% since June 2023.7 “The Fed is looking for incremental, month-to-month declines in living costs,” says Haworth. “Even though Fed officials don’t indicate an expectation of inflation reaccelerating, they also don’t appear to be convinced that rate cuts should occur just yet.”
He notes that the Fed is closely monitoring average monthly wage growth, which dropped below 4% for the 12-month period ending in April 2024, to 3.9%. “At that level, it might be close to a tipping point where the markets will begin to again anticipate Fed rate cuts,” says Haworth. “But the Fed may be looking for a more sustained trend.”