Ask an expert Q&A: European CLO market outlook

November 15, 2023

Learn about the CLO landscape in Europe, how it’s weathering economic turbulence and why there’s reason to be optimistic about what lies ahead.

A collateralised loan obligation (CLO) is a tried-and-true technology when it comes to investing. It has endured the test of time and has shown impressive resilience – with stellar issuances even through the disruptions of COVID-19. CLOs became popular in the early 2000s, and they play a crucial role in the markets by providing financial institutions a means to securitise and transfer credit risk.

These complex structures can be sensitive to economic conditions and changes in credit markets. So, to explore the current climate of the European CLO market, we spoke with Arlene Allen, senior vice president and head of CLO Europe. Here are some of her expert insights based on what she’s seeing in the marketplace.

Q: How have CLOs evolved over the past few years?

The CLO is a complex and highly sought-after financial instrument that represents a type of asset-backed securities. CLOs are typically created as a collection of loans – mainly syndicated loans together with some high yield bonds – which are pooled together and used as collateral to issue new securities. These new securities are then, in turn, sold to institutional investors.

Through the years, CLOs have evolved in different ways to adapt to market conditions and regulatory changes. CLO managers books have grown significantly over time, and the CLO product has delivered impressive yields to investors in varying market conditions. “Between 2008 and 2019,” according to Bloomberg Law, “the leveraged loan market – more than half of which is packaged into CLOs – increased from roughly $600 billion to $1.2 trillion.”

The growth of non-bank lending in Europe following the financial crisis has prompted managers to explore both regulated markets and debt capital markets (DCM) when looking to drive additional yield. Managers with success in the CLO space have also been successful in launching loan funds, thus generating investor appetite and opportunities in the loan funds and private credit space.

With this shift, CLOs as unregulated products have become incrementally more regulated. And in 2011, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) was introduced to enhance investor protection and promote stable and orderly financial markets.

Q: How are macroeconomic factors impacting the European CLO market right now?

CLOs are designed to take advantage of the arbitrage between their own funding costs and the rates on the underlying loans that they purchase and parcel up.

Recently, macroeconomic conditions like rising inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical risk have been putting a squeeze on spreads. Narrowing spreads have significantly curbed CLO issuance in 2023 – particularly with sellers having difficulty finding buyers for the riskier equity tranches.

Larger CLO managers have been able to sell CLOs against this backdrop by leaning on captive equity vehicles (funds set up by managers to buy the equity tranches in their own CLOs). However, not all managers have these funds in place, which limits the number of CLOs that can be formed. Q4 2023 has seen a flurry of issuance on the back of slowing interest rates and inflationary pressures. However, in recent weeks, this window may have passed.

Leveraged buyout (LBO) and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) make up 50% of the CLO market. Activity in these sectors has also been off to a slow start this year due to the persistence of the same factors. Right now, they’re down 50% in terms of volume.

Q: Are regulations playing a role in this?

Capital adequacy requirements – for insurers under Solvency II and for banks under Basel IV – have created a more capital-intensive environment for sellers and clients in Europe, which has a ripple effect on liquidity. It causes higher hurdle rates, which in turn causes banks to step back from corporate lending, which in turn causes private credit lenders to step in and fill the gap and act as a direct competitor to banks.

Q: European CLO issuance has seen a decent dip this year. What does this mean for clients?

Overall, numerous factors are affecting CLO issuance. This means that warehouses need to be more tightly managed, and that CLOs are taking longer to build. We saw some warehouses get terminated due to lending commitments expiring. But now, we’re starting to see issuances increasing and a few new warehouses opening. There have been a lot of positive signs and optimistic indicators – it’s just a matter of timing.

At U.S. Bank, we’re a major player in the CLO servicing space. As managers look to issue deals in Europe – and for many of them, doing so for the first time – we have a lot of experience, expertise and insight to offer. We have the data to help them make informed decisions. We have the flexibility to move quickly. And we have a broad range of resources and solutions to meet their specific business needs.

Q: How has market volatility affected the CLO market?

The market has been in a volatile state due, in large part, due to a regional banking crisis that came to a head earlier this year. New CLO issuance in Europe was less buoyant than in the U.S., where it was up 30% year-over-year by the end of Q1 2023. Europe was down approximately 30% year-over-year in Q1 2023, reaching 6.7 billion euros with a similar level of decline in April. However, “five European new transactions came to the market in August,” according to Fitch Ratings, “bringing a total of EUR 3.7 billion of issuance in 3Q 23.”

Institutional investors have continued to support new CLO formation through the first half of 2023. This is evidenced by the long-term track record of low CLO default rates across economic cycles. It’s also evidenced by the steady performance of CLOs relative to the wider investment grade debt market as interest rates moved upwards in 2022.

Q: How do economic cycles factor in?

CLOs are designed to work through economic cycles. CLOs finance themselves by issuing floating rate notes, and the assets in which they invest have floating rates as well. This means that CLOs already in the market have been able to sail through the changing interest rate environment largely unaffected.

CLOs in reinvestment periods are especially well positioned. Reinvestment periods are timeframes agreed upon by investors during which CLOs can reinvest principal and interest proceeds generated from their underlying loan portfolios. CLOs within this window right now are benefiting from the opportunity to buy up discounted loans in the secondary loan market and boost returns.

Securing loans without this reinvestment advantage is prohibitively expensive at the moment, which is why so many managers are having a difficult time filling warehouses to issue new deals.

Q: How do CLOs compare to other corporate credit options?

CLOs offer good credit and stand out in the structured-product universe on a relative value basis. While arbitrage is now particularly challenging – pricing and relative value can certainly change quickly, as we’ve seen over recent years – timing is everything.

When compared to vanilla corporate credit, CLOs still look very attractive. For similar credit risk, BBB corporates are typically paying less than half the income of equivalent BBB CLOs. While CLOs have always traded wide to investment-grade credit, the basis between vanilla credit and CLOs still looks wide.

European CLOs have been one of the best performing asset classes this year. And generally speaking, European asset-backed securities have outperformed vanilla credit over the last two years due to its lack of duration. We feel optimistic that the current supply-demand dynamic should help keep spreads stable.

Q: What are your thoughts on interest rates and collateral and default risk?

After over a decade of zero interest rate policy, many business models don’t work with higher rates. Leveraged companies are most vulnerable to this due to their reduced cash flow post-rate hikes. Defaults have been at historic lows, however, it’s inevitable that this will increase with rising interest rates.

At U.S. Bank, we have the experience, reach and technology to navigate the mechanics of complex deals with transparency, consistency and unwavering quality. As new opportunities emerge in the European CLO landscape, we can help you understand some of the new legal and structural hurdles in this fast-paced market.

For more information about our European trustee solutions, visit our website or contact us.

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Why year-round giving is important

6 ways to teach your kids about giving

4 steps to finding a charity to support

How to be prepared for tax season as a gig worker

Year end tax planning tips

10 ways your income and assets can affect your taxes

A guide to tax diversification in investing

Economic forecast: 3 things to know for 2024's 2nd half

Bull vs. bear market: What do they mean for you?

Robo advisors vs. financial advisors: How are they different?

Start a Roth IRA for kids

Investing myths: Separating fact from fiction in investing

What Is a 401(k)?

ETF vs. mutual fund: What’s the difference?

How does an IRA work?

What are alternative investments?

4 times to consider rebalancing your portfolio

7 diversification strategies for your investment portfolio

Saving vs. investing: What's the difference?

Why compound annual growth matters

How to start investing: A beginner’s guide

5 questions to help you determine your investment risk tolerance

How to roll over your 401(k)

What types of agency accounts are available for investors?

How to budget 101: 6 strategies to try

How to Adult: 7 tax terms and concepts you should know

Tips for navigating a medical hardship when you’re unable to work

3 steps to prepare for a medical emergency

LGBTQ+ family planning: 3 questions to ask employers

LGBTQ+ adoption 101: What prospective parents should know

Legal protections for growing LGBTQ+ families

11 essential things to do before baby comes

Webinar: Uncover the cost: Starting a family

Preparing for adoption and IVF

Checklist: 10 questions to ask your home inspector

Handling the finances of someone who has died: Terms and definitions

Resources for managing financial matters after an unexpected death

What you need to know as the executor of an estate

When your spouse has passed away: A three-month financial checklist

What documents do you need after a loved one dies?

Simple steps to be ready for a natural disaster

Checklist: financial recovery after a natural disaster

How does money influence your planning?

College budgeting: When to save and splurge

U.S. Bank Student Scholarship

Student checklist: Preparing for college

Uncover the cost of a college diploma

How to save money in college: easy ways to spend less

How to gain financial independence from your parents

The A to Z’s of college loan terms

Co-signing 101: Applying for a loan with co-borrower

Practical money skills and financial tips for college students

How to build credit as a student

5 things to know before accepting a first job offer

Learn to spot and protect yourself from common student scams

How I did it: Paid off student loans

Bank Notes: College cost comparison

Four ways to make a strong resume for your first real job

Tips to earn that A+ in back-to-school savings

7 ways to teach your children to be scam-savvy

How to prevent fraud

Outsmart tax scams and keep your finances safe

Lessons learned from experiencing a scam

Keep your finances safe and secure: Essential tips for preventing check fraud

How to avoid student loan scams

Protecting elderly parents’ finances: 6 steps to follow when managing their money

4 ways to outsmart your smart device

Banking basics: Avoiding fraud and scams

How to spot an online scam

Money muling 101: Recognizing and avoiding this increasingly common scam

What you need to know about identity theft

What is financial fraud?

5 tips for seniors to stay a step ahead of schemers

Recognize. React. Report. Don't fall victim to financial exploitation

Recognize. React. Report. Caregivers can help protect against financial exploitation

Webinar: U.S. Bank asks: Are you safe from fraud?

Is online banking safe?

How-to guide: What to do if your identity is stolen

How you can prevent identity theft

8 tips and tricks for creating and remembering your PIN

How to avoid being the victim of a digital payments scam

Helping Gen Z build financial confidence

Short- and Long-Term Financial Goals for Every Life Stage

How your taxes can change after a major life event

What to do with your tax refund or bonus

Financial goals for 2024 a 12-month planning guide

How to save for a dream vacation

Tips for talking about money when friends earn more

Building confidence in your finances and career

Pros and cons of a personal line credit

3 tips for saving money when moving to a new home

What is a Certificate of Deposit? And what to know before opening an account

What does FDIC mean?  

3 financial tools to help automate your finances

3 ways to keep costs down at the grocery store (and make meal planning fun)

5 tips for creating (and sticking to) a holiday budget

Financial checklist: Preparing for military deployment

How to financially prepare for a military PCS

Planning self-care moments that matter (and how to finance them)

5 things to consider when deciding to take an unplanned trip

Stay committed to your goals by creating positive habits

Growing your savings by going on a ‘money hunt’

Working with an accountability partner can help you reach your goals

The banking app you need as a new parent

Why a mobile banking app is a ‘must have’ for your next vacation

How to decide when to shop local and when to shop online

Your guide to starting a job: Resources to help along the way

How to set yourself up for success in your first job

5 myths about emergency funds

Financial Wellness Assessment

Does your savings plan match your lifestyle?

Mobile banking tips for smarter and safer online banking

Uncover the cost: Wedding

Uncover the cost: International trip

Are savings bonds still a thing?

Tips to overcome three common savings hurdles

Adulting 101: How to make a budget plan

Personal loans first-timer's guide: 7 questions to ask

Mindset Matters: How to practice mindful spending

How and when to ask for a raise

How to choose the right rewards credit card for you

How can I help my student manage money?

How to manage money in the military: A veteran weighs in

Things to know about the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act

You can take these 18 budgeting tips straight to the bank

3 tips for saving money easily

Save time and money with automatic bill pay

How to best handle unexpected expenses

Stay on budget — and on the go — with a mobile banking app

Do you and your fiancé have compatible financial goals?

U.S. Bank asks: Transitioning out of college life? What’s next?

U.S. Bank asks: Do you know your finances?

U.S. Bank asks: Do you know what an overdraft is?

Personal finance for teens can empower your child

How to save for a wedding

How can you pay bills online the right way?

How compound interest works

Dear Money Mentor: How do I set and track financial goals?

Lost job finance tips: What to do when you lose your job

Money Moments: 3 smart financial strategies when caring for aging parents

Money management guide to financial independence

First-timer’s guide to savings account alternatives

7 financial questions to consider when changing jobs

5 tips to use your credit card wisely and steer clear of debt

Money Moments: 3 tips for planning an extended leave of absence

Overdrafts happen: Steps to get you back on track

P2P payments make it easier to split the tab

Essential financial resources and protections for military families

How to stop living paycheck to paycheck post-pay increase

Practical money tips we've learned from our dads

6 ways to spring clean your finances and save money year-round

How to cut mindless spending: real tips from real people

How to increase your savings

Bank from home with these digital features

Military finance: How to create a family budget after military service

Discovering your money personality can help you save

Tips on how couples can learn to agree about money

Understanding your military GI Bill benefits

How grandparents can contribute to college funds instead of buying gifts

How to open and invest in a 529 plan

Using 529 plans for K-12 tuition

Is a home equity loan for college the right choice for your student

Parent checklist: Preparing for college

How to apply for federal student aid through the FAFSA

What to consider before taking out a student loan

Are you ready to restart your federal student loan payments?

Consolidating debts: Pros and cons to keep in mind

How to talk to your lender about debt

Everything you need to know about consolidating debts

Managing debt

Best travel credit card perks for family vacations

5 tips to use your credit card wisely and steer clear of debt

5 steps to selecting your first credit card

How to use debt to build wealth

What’s a subordination agreement, and why does it matter?

Understanding the true cost of borrowing: What is amortization, and why does it matter?

Know your debt-to-income ratio

How to pay off credit card debt

Your quick guide to loans and obtaining credit

Dear Money Mentor: How do I begin paying off credit card debt?

Checklist: 10 things to look for when touring a home

How to sell and buy a home at the same time

Dear Money Mentor: What is cash-out refinancing and is it right for you?

Home improvements with the best ROI

Overcoming high interest rates: Getting your homeownership goals back on track

How we did it: Converted to solar power

PCS moving checklist for military spouses and families

For today's homebuyers, time and money are everything

Crypto + Homebuying: Impacts on the real estate market

How I did it: Bought my dream home using equity

Buying a home Q&A: What made three homeowners fall in love with their new home

House Hacks: How buying an investment property worked as my first home

Starting your homebuying journey

Managing the impacts of appraisal gaps in a hot housing market

How I did it: Built living spaces to support my family

Spring cleaning checklist for your home: 5 budget-boosting tasks

Saving for a down payment: Where should I keep my money?

Your guide to breaking the rental cycle

Checklist: 6 to-dos for after a move

What are conforming loan limits and why are they increasing

Uncover the cost: Building a home

The lowdown on 6 myths about buying a home

4 ways to free up your budget (and your life) with a smaller home

Get more home for your money with these tips

Money Moments: Tips for selling your home

Money Moments: How to finance a home addition

How I did it: My house remodel

First-time homebuyer’s guide to getting a mortgage

Dear Money Mentor: When should I refinance a mortgage?

Beyond the mortgage: Other costs for homeowners

10 questions to ask when hiring a contractor

What is an escrow account? Do I have one?

These small home improvement projects offer big returns on investment

Should you get a home equity loan or a home equity line of credit?

Mortgage basics: What’s the difference between interest rate and annual percentage rate?

Is a home equity line of credit (HELOC) right for you?

How to use your home equity to finance home improvements

How does a home equity line of credit (HELOC) work?

How do I prequalify for a mortgage?

Home equity: Small ways to improve the value of your home

Can you take advantage of the dead equity in your home?

4 questions to ask before you buy an investment property

10 uses for a home equity loan

What applying for store credit card on impulse could mean

Improving your credit score: Truth and myths revealed

How to spot a credit repair scam

6 essential credit report terms to know

5 unique ways to take your credit card benefits further

How to maximize your credit card rewards

Test your loan savvy

Decoding credit: Understanding the 5 C’s

Should you give your child a college credit card?

U.S. Bank asks: What do you know about credit?

What types of credit scores qualify for a mortgage?

What is a good credit score?

Credit score help: Repairing a bad credit score

How to improve your credit score

Common questions about electric vehicles (EVs)

What to keep in mind when buying a used car from a private seller

How I decided that buying an RV was worth it for me

Take the stress out of buying your teen a car

Questions to ask before buying a car

How to choose the best car loan for you

Disclosures

U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust is a trading name of U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited, U.S. Bank Trustees Limited and U.S. Bank Europe DAC (each a U.S. Bancorp group company). U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited is a limited company registered in England and Wales having the registration number 05521133 and a registered address of 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR. U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited, Dublin Branch is registered in Ireland with the Companies Registration Office under Reg. No. 909340 with its registered office at Block F1, Cherrywood Business Park, Cherrywood, Dublin 18, Ireland D18 W2X7. U.S. Bank Trustees Limited is a limited company registered in England and Wales having the registration number 02379632 and a registered address of 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR. U.S. Bank Europe DAC, trading as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered in Ireland with the Companies Registration Office, Reg. No. 418442. The liability of the member is limited. Registered Office: Block F1, Cherrywood Business Park, Cherrywood, Dublin 18, Ireland D18 W2X7. Directors: A list of names and personal details of every director of the company is available for inspection to the public at the company’s registered office for a nominal fee. In the UK, U.S. Bank Europe DAC trades as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust through its UK Branch from its establishment at 125 Old Broad Street, Fifth Floor, London, EC2N 1AR (registered with the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales under Registration No. BR020005). Authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. In Luxembourg, U.S. Bank Europe DAC trades as U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust through its Luxembourg Branch under RCS number B244276 with its registered office at 4, rue Albert Borschette, L-1246 Luxembourg, and is regulated and authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) as well as by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the CBI and the CSSF are available from us on request. All banking services are provided through U.S. Bank Europe DAC. U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited and U.S. Bank Trustees Limited are Trust Corporations and not banking institutions and are not authorised to carry on banking business in the United Kingdom, Ireland or any other jurisdiction.

All banking services are provided through U.S. Bank Europe DAC. U.S. Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited and U.S. Bank Trustees Limited are Trust Corporations and not banking institutions and are not authorised to carry on banking business in the United Kingdom, Ireland or any other jurisdiction.

U.S. Bank National Association is not responsible for and does not guarantee the products, services, performance or obligations of its affiliates.